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MLB · Moneyline
Pittsburgh Pirates
@
St. Louis Cardinals
Date
Thu, May 21
Time
5:15 PM
Venue
Busch Stadium
Spread
Pirates ML
Odds
-132
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Pirates ML
-132 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
The pitching ERA gap and Pittsburgh's superior team-wide numbers provide a real but modest lean toward the Pirates ML, though the -132 price and St. Louis's strong home ATS record keep this firmly in LEAN territory.
Key Factors
Starter ERA edge: Ashcraft 3.09 vs May 4.81 — a 1.72-run gap that clears the 1.5+ threshold for a significant pitching edge
Pittsburgh's team ERA (3.89) and WHIP (1.23) both outperform St. Louis (4.21 ERA, 1.39 WHIP), suggesting a deeper pitching staff advantage beyond just the starter
Pirates offense leads in OPS (.724 vs .711), BA (.252 vs .240), and runs scored (242 vs 217) — a cleaner offensive unit against a weaker Cardinals staff
Pittsburgh won yesterday's game 7-0 in this same ballpark, riding momentum and demonstrating they can suppress this Cardinals lineup