All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Cleveland Guardians
@
Detroit Tigers
Date
Thu, May 21
Time
5:10 PM
Venue
Comerica Park
Spread
Guardians ML
Odds
-101
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Guardians ML
-101 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Cleveland ML at -101 is a LEAN — the Guardians are the better team by nearly every metric and are inexplicably priced as underdogs, but Mize's ERA advantage and limited pitcher split data prevent this from reaching PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Cleveland is the better team by record (.569 vs .400) and run differential (+0.4 vs -0.4), yet is priced as the underdog at -101 while Detroit is -120 — a clear market inefficiency
Guardians have won 5 straight including all 3 games of this series (8-2, 4-3, 3-2), demonstrating direct head-to-head dominance over Detroit
Cleveland's team ERA (3.72) and opponent OPS allowed (0.699) both outperform Detroit's (3.98 ERA, 0.692 opp OPS), indicating a stronger pitching unit overall
Detroit is 13-11 at home but ATS as a home favorite just 11-17 (.393), suggesting the market consistently overvalues them in this role