All Picks
NBA · Spread
Oklahoma City Thunder
@
San Antonio Spurs
Date
Sat, May 23
Time
12:30 AM
Venue
Frost Bank Center
Spread
Thunder +1.5
Odds
-110
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Thunder +1.5
-110 · 1 Unit
72%
The Edge
Thunder +1.5 is a LEAN: OKC is the better team by nearly every metric and an elite road ATS team, but Jalen Williams' injury status is a genuine wildcard that prevents this from reaching PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Thunder ATS dominance: 56-27 (.675) overall vs Spurs 39-43 (.476) — a 20-percentage-point gap in ATS win rate
Thunder elite road ATS: 26-14 (.650) on the road, well above the .550 threshold for 'elite road team' designation
Thunder 8-2 ATS last 10 games, combined with +12.5 avg margin — hot AND winning big, confirming the trend is real
Thunder superior defensive efficiency: Def RTG 105.4 vs Spurs 108.5, and TOPG advantage 10.8 vs 14.7 — cleaner team on both ends