All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
St. Louis Cardinals
@
Cincinnati Reds
Date
Fri, May 22
Time
10:40 PM
Venue
Great American Ball Park
Spread
Cardinals ML
Odds
+101
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Cardinals ML
+101 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
The Cardinals ML at plus money is a lean given Leahy's substantial ERA edge over a 0-5 Paddack, but the hitter-friendly park, Cardinals' recent offensive struggles, and market pricing keep this below PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Pitcher ERA gap: Leahy 3.94 vs Paddack 7.07 — a 3.13 ERA delta far exceeds the 1.5+ threshold for a significant pitching edge
Paddack is 0-5 on the season, signaling sustained ineffectiveness, not a small-sample anomaly
Cardinals are 14-9 (.609) ATS on the road — elite road performance supporting value at +101
Cardinals team ERA (4.24) and WHIP (1.38) are meaningfully better than Reds' team ERA (4.71) and WHIP (1.46), suggesting bullpen depth advantage as well