All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Pittsburgh Pirates
@
Toronto Blue Jays
Date
Fri, May 22
Time
11:07 PM
Venue
Rogers Centre
Spread
Blue Jays ML
Odds
-168
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Blue Jays ML
-168 · 1 Unit
65%
The Edge
Gausman's clear ERA advantage over Chandler is the primary edge, supported by Toronto's red-hot 7-3 ATS run, but Pittsburgh's superior offense and season-long ATS edge cap this at a LEAN rather than a PICK.
Key Factors
Pitching edge: Gausman (3.45 ERA) vs Chandler (5.14 ERA) — a 1.69-run ERA delta, exceeding the 1.5+ threshold for a meaningful starter advantage
Toronto is 7-3 ATS last 10 games, the single hottest ATS trend on the board and flagged as a key signal
Toronto's team ERA (3.92) and WHIP (1.28) are comparable to Pittsburgh's (3.85/1.22), meaning the bullpen gap is not a clear Pittsburgh edge
Toronto is coming off back-to-back wins (2-0, 2-1) vs NYY, showing a locked-in pitching-first identity that aligns with Gausman's profile