All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Tampa Bay Rays
@
New York Yankees
Date
Fri, May 22
Time
11:05 PM
Venue
Yankee Stadium
Spread
Rays ML
Odds
+130
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Rays ML
+130 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Tampa Bay ML is a LEAN — Martinez's elite ERA against an unknown Yankees replacement arm and the Rays' dominant ATS trends create a directional edge, but Yankee Stadium's power environment and New York's strong home record prevent this from reaching PICK threshold at plus money.
Key Factors
Rays ATS record is 31-17 (.646) overall vs Yankees 25-26 (.490) — a 16% gap in ATS win rate
Rays are 7-3 ATS last 10 games; Yankees are 2-8 ATS last 10 — a stark recent divergence
Gerrit Cole is on the 15-day IL (elbow), meaning the Yankees' listed starter is unavailable — the actual arm taking the mound is unknown and almost certainly a downgrade
Nick Martinez is 4-1 with a 1.51 ERA for Tampa Bay, representing a significant pitching edge over whatever replacement New York deploys