All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
New York Mets
@
Miami Marlins
Date
Fri, May 22
Time
11:10 PM
Venue
loanDepot park
Spread
Mets ML
Odds
-105
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Mets ML
-105 · 1 Unit
58%
The Edge
The Mets get a LEAN as slight moneyline underdogs with the better starter on the mound, but limited pitcher data and Marlins' offensive edge cap this well below PICK territory.
Key Factors
Starter ERA delta: Myers 3.41 vs Perez 5.33 — a 1.92-run gap that meets the 1.5+ threshold for a significant pitching edge
Mets are the moneyline underdog at -105 despite the superior starter, offering slight plus-value relative to the edge
Mets ATS last 10: 6-4 vs Marlins 3-7, showing better recent execution against the number
Marlins on a 3-game losing streak and 12-18 (.400) ATS at home this season — weak home performance