All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Detroit Tigers
@
Baltimore Orioles
Date
Fri, May 22
Time
11:15 PM
Venue
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Spread
Tigers ML
Odds
+118
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Tigers ML
+118 · 1 Unit
58%
The Edge
The Tigers ML at +118 offers a lean-worthy value play driven by Baltimore's poor bullpen/pitching metrics and the Orioles' terrible ATS record as home favorites, but Flaherty's 0-5/5.77 ERA caps this firmly as a lean, not a pick.
Key Factors
Detroit team ERA 3.96 vs Baltimore team ERA 4.97 — a 1.01-run gap favoring Tigers pitching staff overall
Tigers ATS as road underdog: 14-8 (.636) vs Orioles ATS as home favorite: 9-18 (.333) — a massive split favoring Detroit covering
Tigers overall ATS win rate 25-26 (.490) vs Orioles 21-29 (.420) — +7% edge cited in key signals
Orioles opponent OPS allowed is 0.780 vs Tigers opponent OPS allowed 0.690 — Baltimore's pitching staff is giving up far more quality contact