All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Colorado Rockies
@
Arizona Diamondbacks
Date
Sat, May 23
Time
1:40 AM
Venue
Chase Field
Spread
Diamondbacks ML
Odds
-206
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Diamondbacks ML
-206 · 1 Unit
72%
The Edge
Arizona is the clearly superior team at home with better pitching top to bottom, but the -206 price demands near-80 confidence to justify a PICK, and the edge here sits honestly at LEAN territory.
Key Factors
Pitcher quality edge: Soroka (6-2, 3.49 ERA) vs Sugano (4-3, 4.02 ERA) — 0.53 ERA gap favoring Arizona's starter
Arizona home record 16-9 (.640) vs Colorado road record 9-17 (.346) — a 29-point win% gap that is one of the largest home/road splits in the data
Team ERA gap: Arizona 4.17 vs Colorado 4.94 — a 0.77 run differential in pitching quality; Arizona also holds a +0.090 WHIP edge (1.26 vs 1.47)
Arizona on a W5 streak vs Colorado on L3 streak; Arizona 3-1 in the season series and won yesterday's game 2-1