All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Arizona Diamondbacks
@
Cincinnati Reds
Date
Sun, Jun 14
Time
5:40 PM
Venue
Great American Ball Park
Spread
Reds ML
Odds
-110
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Reds ML
-110 · 1 Unit
58%
The Edge
A lean toward the Reds at home given Abbott's ERA edge and Arizona's poor road record, but the near-even moneyline, Cincinnati's shaky bullpen, and the De La Cruz absence keep this well short of a PICK.
Key Factors
Andrew Abbott holds a 1.33 ERA advantage over Zac Gallen (4.10 vs 5.43), the clearest statistical edge in this matchup
Cincinnati is 17-17 at home vs Arizona's 14-21 on the road — a meaningful home/road split favoring the Reds
Great American Ball Park has a 1.14 run factor and 1.22 HR factor, and Cincinnati has hit 87 HRs this season vs Arizona's 61, giving the Reds more upside in a hitter-friendly environment
Reds are on a W1 streak and just won Game 2 of this series 2-1, while Arizona enters on an L1 and has gone 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games