All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Detroit Tigers
@
Cleveland Guardians
Date
Sun, Jun 14
Time
5:40 PM
Venue
Progressive Field
Spread
Guardians ML
Odds
-112
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Guardians ML
-112 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
Cleveland's home dominance, superior pitching matchup on paper, and 6-0 season series edge justify a lean, but the loss of Ramirez caps this at a LEAN rather than a PICK given Cleveland's already-modest offensive profile.
Key Factors
Pitcher record edge: Gavin Williams is 9-3 vs Casey Mize's 2-3 — Williams has proven durability and run support across a much larger sample
Season series dominance: Cleveland is 6-0 against Detroit in 2025, including back-to-back wins of 3-1 and 3-2 in this very series at Progressive Field
Home splits: Cleveland is 19-17 at home SU and covers ATS at a .556 clip at home vs Detroit's brutal 11-26 road record and .378 road ATS mark
Team ERA edge: Cleveland's 3.75 team ERA and 1.26 WHIP both edge Detroit's 3.94 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, and Cleveland's bullpen has held Detroit to 3 runs or fewer in both games this series