All Picks
MLB · MoneylineWon
New York Mets
@
Cincinnati Reds
Date
Mon, Jun 15
Time
11:10 PM
Venue
Great American Ball Park
Spread
Reds ML
Odds
-143
Risk
MOD
PICK
Reds ML
-143 · 1 Unit
78%
✅ Winner
New York Mets 0, Cincinnati Reds 12
+69.93u
The Edge
Burns' elite 2.14 ERA against a journeyman starter, combined with Cincinnati's superior ATS record and a hitter-friendly home park, gives the Reds a clear multi-factor edge at a manageable -143 price.
Key Factors
Chase Burns holds a 1.91 ERA advantage over Tobias Myers (2.14 vs 4.05), clearing the 1.5+ ERA delta threshold that signals a near-automatic lean toward the better starter's team.
Cincinnati's overall ATS win rate is 37-33 (.529) vs New York's 30-41 (.423), an 11-point edge that the data explicitly flags as meaningful.
Great American Ball Park carries a 1.14 run factor and 1.22 HR factor — a top-tier hitter's park that favors the home team's offense (Reds: 89 HR, .705 OPS) over a Mets pitching staff with a 3.85 ERA that will be tested without its ace Senga.
Reds are 26-21 (.553) ATS as underdogs and 16-19 (.457) ATS at home, while the Mets are just 14-21 SU on the road with a 15-20 ATS road record (.429), making Cincinnati a live home dog at -143.