All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Colorado Rockies
@
Chicago Cubs
Date
Tue, Jun 16
Time
12:05 AM
Venue
Wrigley Field
Spread
Cubs ML
Odds
-207
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Cubs ML
-207 · 1 Unit
72%
The Edge
Imanaga's commanding ERA advantage over Lorenzen is the clearest edge on the board, but the -207 price demands 80+ confidence to justify as a PICK — honest assessment lands at 72, making this a LEAN only.
Key Factors
Starting pitcher ERA gap of 3.10 (Imanaga 4.44 vs Lorenzen 7.54) — methodology flags elite vs bad starter as a near-automatic lean on the better starter's team
Cubs team ERA of 4.23 vs Rockies team ERA of 5.64 — a 1.41 gap indicating systemic pitching superiority beyond just the starter
Cubs hold a +1.4 run differential edge over the Rockies and own a 37-35 record vs Colorado's 27-45 (.514 vs .375 win%)
Wind blowing out to RF at 8 mph at Wrigley (HR factor 1.08) slightly favors the team with more home runs — Cubs have 83 HR vs Rockies 75 HR on the season