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MLB · Moneyline
Detroit Tigers
@
Houston Astros
Date
Tue, Jun 16
Time
12:10 AM
Venue
Daikin Park
Spread
Tigers ML
Odds
+108
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Tigers ML
+108 · 1 Unit
58%
The Edge
Detroit's superior starting pitcher and plus-money underdog price create a modest lean on the Tigers ML, but the road record and Houston's offensive advantage keep this firmly in LEAN territory.
Key Factors
Pitcher ERA edge: Melton (2.81) vs Teng (3.71) — a 0.90 ERA delta favoring Detroit's starter, the single most predictive factor in MLB
Team ERA edge: Detroit's 3.94 team ERA is significantly better than Houston's 4.91, suggesting Detroit's pitching staff is more reliable top to bottom
Underdog ATS value: Detroit is +108 on the moneyline, offering plus-money on the team with the better starting pitcher
Detroit road underdog ATS record: 22-11 (.667) as road underdogs — a strong historical cover rate in this exact role