All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
New York Mets
@
Cincinnati Reds
Date
Wed, Jun 17
Time
4:40 PM
Venue
Great American Ball Park
Spread
Reds ML
Odds
+113
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Reds ML
+113 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Cincinnati's superior offense, home-field advantage in a top hitter's park, dominant season series record, and strong ATS performance provide a lean toward the Reds ML, but McLean's ERA edge and key Reds lineup injuries prevent this from reaching PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Reds ATS win rate is 39-33 (.542) vs Mets 30-43 (.411) — a 13-point gap that is the single clearest statistical edge in this matchup
Reds starter Nolan McLean carries a 4.01 ERA vs Nick Lodolo at 5.21 — a 1.20 ERA delta favoring the Mets arm, but Lodolo is pitching at home where park factors inflate scoring for both sides equally
Great American Ball Park run factor 1.14 and HR factor 1.22 — Reds have 94 home runs vs Mets 77 and a higher team OPS (.710 vs .664), meaning the hitter-friendly environment benefits Cincinnati's superior offense more
Reds are 4-1 in the season series vs the Mets and riding a W2 streak; Mets are on an L2 streak and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games