All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Pittsburgh Pirates
@
Athletics
Date
Thu, Jun 18
Time
1:40 AM
Venue
Sutter Health Park
Spread
Pirates ML
Odds
-120
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Pirates ML
-120 · 1 Unit
60%
The Edge
Pittsburgh gets the lean on the strength of a clear pitching edge and the Athletics' poor home ATS record as a favorite, but Civale's injury status and Oakland's hot ATS run cap this at a lean rather than a strong pick.
Key Factors
Starter ERA edge: Ashcraft 3.30 vs Civale 4.20 — a 0.90-run gap favoring Pittsburgh
Team ERA advantage: Pirates 4.25 vs Athletics 4.81, with opponent OPS allowed of 0.703 vs 0.783 — Pittsburgh's pitching staff has been significantly better at suppressing opposing offenses
Pirates are 5-3 in their last 8 games (W1 streak) vs Athletics on an L1 streak, and Pittsburgh won the series finale yesterday 6-5
Athletics home ATS record is a weak 17-19 (.472), and as a home favorite they are a poor 7-15 (.318) ATS — the market has been overvaluing them at home all season