All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
New York Mets
@
Philadelphia Phillies
Date
Thu, Jun 18
Time
10:40 PM
Venue
Citizens Bank Park
Spread
Mets ML
Odds
+104
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Mets ML
+104 · 1 Unit
60%
The Edge
Lean toward the Mets ML as a modest underdog given Manaea's ERA edge over a struggling Nola and the Phillies' historically poor home ATS performance, but the Mets' injury concerns and inferior overall record cap this at a lean rather than a strong pick.
Key Factors
Pitcher ERA edge: Manaea 4.78 vs Nola 5.86 — a 1.08 ERA gap favoring the Mets starter
Phillies are 14-25 ATS at home (.359), one of the worst home ATS marks in the league
Mets ATS overall (.419) outpaces Phillies ATS overall (.365) by 5 percentage points
Mets are 13-9 ATS as underdogs (.591) vs Phillies 4-11 ATS as underdogs (.267) — Mets thrive in this role