All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Toronto Blue Jays
@
Chicago Cubs
Date
Fri, Jun 19
Time
6:20 PM
Venue
Wrigley Field
Spread
Cubs ML
Odds
-125
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Cubs ML
-125 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Brown's ERA edge and Cubs' home dominance justify a lean toward Chicago, but their brutal 13-25 home ATS record and Toronto's live underdog profile at +104 keep this well short of a PICK.
Key Factors
Ben Brown (3-2, 1.74 ERA) holds a 1.67 ERA advantage over Kevin Gausman (4-4, 3.41 ERA) — the largest single factor in any MLB game
Cubs are 22-16 at home SU (.579 win%) vs Toronto's 16-20 road record (.444 win%), a 13.5% home/road gap
Chicago leads in team OPS (.731 vs .705) and total runs scored (344 vs 306) on the season
Wind blowing out to RF at 8 mph at Wrigley with 72°F clear conditions slightly favors the more powerful Cubs offense (87 HR vs 74 HR)