All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
St. Louis Cardinals
@
Kansas City Royals
Date
Sat, Jun 20
Time
12:15 AM
Venue
Kauffman Stadium
Spread
Cardinals ML
Odds
-119
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Cardinals ML
-119 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Cardinals ML is a LEAN — the ATS trend and pitching edge point toward St. Louis, but yesterday's blowout loss, KC's home form, and injury uncertainty prevent this from reaching PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Cardinals ATS overall .603 (44-29) vs. Royals .421 (32-44) — an 18% gap in ATS win rate
McGreevy ERA 2.99 vs. Lugo ERA 3.86 — a 0.87 ERA advantage for the Cardinals starter
Cardinals road ATS record 21-14 (.600) vs. Royals home ATS record 18-21 (.462) — road team is the sharper ATS unit
Cardinals team ERA 4.19 vs. Royals 4.48, and Cardinals Opp OPS 0.728 vs. Royals Opp OPS 0.760 — STL pitching staff suppresses opponents more effectively