All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Cincinnati Reds
@
New York Yankees
Date
Sat, Jun 20
Time
5:35 PM
Venue
Yankee Stadium
Spread
Yankees ML
Odds
-207
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Yankees ML
-207 · 1 Unit
72%
The Edge
The Yankees are the clearly superior team with better pitching and offense, but at -207 the juice is too steep to elevate this beyond a LEAN given their poor home ATS record and Cincinnati's elite road cover rate.
Key Factors
Will Warren is 7-1 with a 3.47 ERA vs Abbott's 4-4, 3.95 — a 0.48 ERA delta favoring the Yankees starter
Yankees team ERA of 3.30 vs Reds team ERA of 4.66 — a 1.36-run gap in pitching quality
Yankees OPS advantage: .775 vs Reds .775 — wait, Yankees .775 vs Reds .702, a .073 OPS gap with 386 runs scored vs 311
Yankees 7-3 ATS last 10 and 46-28 SU record (.622 win%) vs Reds 35-39 (.473) on a two-game losing streak