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MLB · Moneyline
Pittsburgh Pirates
@
Colorado Rockies
Date
Sun, Jun 21
Time
7:10 PM
Venue
Coors Field
Spread
Pirates ML
Odds
-149
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Pirates ML
-149 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Pittsburgh is the better team on paper and a LEAN is warranted given the ERA and run differential edges, but Colorado's home dog ATS history, back-to-back wins in this series, and the moderate -149 price limit this to a directional lean rather than a strong commitment.
Key Factors
Pitcher ERA edge: Jared Jones (6.23 ERA) vs Michael Lorenzen (7.13 ERA) — Pittsburgh's starter is the lesser liability, a 0.90 ERA delta favoring PIT
Team ERA gap is substantial: Pirates 4.20 vs Rockies 5.49, a 1.29-run difference reflecting a meaningfully better pitching staff overall
Run differential edge: Pirates +0.2 vs Rockies -1.1, a +1.4 gap indicating Pittsburgh is the superior team by outcome quality
Pittsburgh O/U record of 43-31-3 (.581) reflects a high-scoring offense that can generate runs even in tight spots