All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
New York Yankees
@
Detroit Tigers
Date
Mon, Jun 22
Time
10:10 PM
Venue
Comerica Park
Spread
Yankees ML
Odds
-131
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Yankees ML
-131 · 1 Unit
72%
The Edge
Cole's ERA edge and the Yankees' overall team quality advantage justify a lean toward New York ML at -131, but the loss of Judge and Stanton caps confidence below PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Starter ERA gap: Cole 2.57 vs Valdez 4.09 — a 1.52-run differential that meets the 1.5+ threshold for a significant pitching edge
Team quality gap: Yankees .605 win% vs Tigers .429, with a +1.5 average run differential vs Detroit's -0.1
Yankees team ERA (3.35) and opponent OPS allowed (0.650) are both superior to Detroit's ERA (3.83) and opponent OPS allowed (0.701)
Yankees road ATS record is 21-18 (.538) while Tigers are just 33-44 SU at home this season, and Detroit is 14-27 ATS as a home favorite (.341)