All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Houston Astros
@
Toronto Blue Jays
Date
Mon, Jun 22
Time
11:07 PM
Venue
Rogers Centre
Spread
Blue Jays ML
Odds
-126
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Blue Jays ML
-126 · 1 Unit
60%
The Edge
Toronto gets a lean on the strength of superior team pitching metrics and a strong home/road split advantage, but Bieber's unknown IL-return status caps this at a lean rather than a confident pick.
Key Factors
Toronto team ERA is 4.13 vs Houston's 4.84 — a 0.71 gap favoring Blue Jays pitching depth
Toronto opponent OPS allowed is 0.702 vs Houston's 0.747 — Blue Jays pitching staff has been meaningfully better at suppressing opposing offenses
Toronto home record is 21-18 (.538) vs Houston road record of 17-21 (.447) — clear home/road split favoring the Blue Jays
Toronto ATS as underdog is 17-17 (.500) and Houston ATS as road favorite is 10-20 (.333) — Houston has been a poor favorite on the road all season