All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Boston Red Sox
@
Colorado Rockies
Date
Tue, Jun 23
Time
12:40 AM
Venue
Coors Field
Spread
Red Sox ML
Odds
-131
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Red Sox ML
-131 · 1 Unit
60%
The Edge
Boston's superior pitching metrics and run differential provide a lean toward the Red Sox ML, but Coors Field's extreme park factors and Colorado's offensive advantage cap confidence well below PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Boston team ERA 3.85 vs Colorado 5.53 — a 1.68-run gap, the largest measurable pitching edge in this matchup
Boston point differential -0.1 vs Colorado -1.1 — Red Sox are +1.0 run differential edge on the season
Jake Bennett ERA 4.79 vs Ryan Feltner ERA 5.05 — Boston's starter has the edge in the pitching matchup
Boston road record 19-19 (.500) vs Colorado home record 16-21 (.432) — Red Sox are actually the better team at their respective venues