All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
New York Yankees
@
Detroit Tigers
Date
Tue, Jun 23
Time
10:40 PM
Venue
Comerica Park
Spread
Tigers ML
Odds
-107
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Tigers ML
-107 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Mize's ERA edge and Detroit's strong home underdog profile provide a lean toward the Tigers ML at near-even money (-107), but the Yankees' overall team quality gap and superior run differential prevent this from reaching PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Pitcher ERA edge favors Detroit: Mize 2.58 ERA vs Rodon 3.50 ERA — a 0.92 gap favoring the home starter
Detroit home underdog ATS record is elite at 25-12 (.676), the strongest split in the data set
Tigers on a W4 streak with momentum; Yankees on L3 skid including a loss in this same series yesterday
Yankees missing Aaron Judge (10-day IL, stress fracture) and Giancarlo Stanton (10-day IL, calf), significantly weakening their offensive core — team OPS already just .768