All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Arizona Diamondbacks
@
St. Louis Cardinals
Date
Tue, Jun 23
Time
11:45 PM
Venue
Busch Stadium
Spread
Diamondbacks ML
Odds
-105
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Diamondbacks ML
-105 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Rodriguez's 2.45 ERA vs Leahy's 4.63 ERA is a legitimate pitching edge at near-even money, making Arizona ML a lean, but the Cardinals' home advantage, superior offense (.728 OPS), and Arizona's L3 skid prevent this from reaching PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Starter ERA delta: Rodriguez 2.45 vs Leahy 4.63 — a 2.18-run gap that clears the 1.5+ threshold for a significant edge per methodology
Arizona is priced as a near-even underdog at -105 despite holding the clear pitching advantage — positive moneyline value relative to edge
Arizona ATS road record is 21-16 (.568), flagged as elite road performance, and they are 28-19 (.596) ATS as road underdogs
Neutral park (Busch Stadium run factor 0.99, HR factor 0.95) and mild weather (72°F, 8 mph out to RF) do not suppress Rodriguez's effectiveness