All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Seattle Mariners
@
Pittsburgh Pirates
Date
Wed, Jun 24
Time
10:40 PM
Venue
PNC Park
Spread
Pirates ML
Odds
-118
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Pirates ML
-118 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Pittsburgh ML is a lean — Ashcraft's ERA edge, the Pirates' home underdog ATS record, and their offensive superiority provide a directional signal, but Seattle's elite team pitching and bullpen depth prevent this from reaching PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Ashcraft ERA 3.18 vs Woo ERA 3.94 — a 0.76 ERA gap favoring the home starter
Pirates team OPS .742 vs Mariners .700, and 393 runs scored vs 329 — a clear offensive edge
Pittsburgh ATS as home underdog: 18-14 (.563) vs Seattle ATS as road underdog: 1-4 (.200)
Pirates hold a +12% overall ATS win rate edge (39-40, .494 vs SEA's 30-50, .375)