All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
New York Yankees
@
Boston Red Sox
Date
Thu, Jun 25
Time
11:10 PM
Venue
Fenway Park
Spread
Yankees ML
Odds
-163
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Yankees ML
-163 · 1 Unit
72%
The Edge
Schlittler's elite 1.71 ERA against a struggling Red Sox offense and Boston's historically poor home ATS record give the Yankees a clear directional lean, but Judge's absence and Fenway's run-inflating environment prevent this from reaching PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Starter ERA gap: Schlittler 1.71 vs. Early 3.64 — a 1.93-run differential, well above the 1.5+ threshold flagged as a significant edge
Yankees are 48-31 (.608) vs. Red Sox 32-46 (.410) — a +1.6 run differential edge and +10% ATS win rate advantage
Boston is only 12-25 (.324) ATS at home this season — one of the worst home ATS marks in the league
Yankees team ERA 3.34 vs. Red Sox 3.82, and Yankees Opp OPS of .651 vs. Red Sox Opp OPS of .705 — New York's pitching staff suppresses opposing offenses at a meaningfully higher rate