All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Arizona Diamondbacks
@
St. Louis Cardinals
Date
Thu, Jun 25
Time
11:45 PM
Venue
Busch Stadium
Spread
Cardinals ML
Odds
-136
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Cardinals ML
-136 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
McGreevy's substantial ERA advantage over a struggling Gallen, combined with St. Louis's superior offense and strong home ATS record, gives the Cardinals a directional lean — but Arizona's hot streak and elite road ATS numbers keep this from reaching PICK threshold.
Key Factors
McGreevy (3.35 ERA) vs Gallen (6.10 ERA) — a 2.75-run ERA delta that exceeds the 1.5+ threshold flagged as a significant edge
Cardinals are 42-36 (.538) vs Diamondbacks 41-39 (.512), with St. Louis holding the better overall record and home-field advantage
Cardinals ATS as home underdog/favorite: 24-17 (.585) at home overall, and 36-22 (.621) ATS as underdogs — elite cover rate in that role
St. Louis has a superior Team OPS (.726 vs .696) and more home runs (88 vs 71), giving them a meaningful offensive edge against a struggling Gallen