All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Houston Astros
@
Detroit Tigers
Date
Fri, Jun 26
Time
10:40 PM
Venue
Comerica Park
Spread
Tigers ML
Odds
-118
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Tigers ML
-118 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Detroit's elite home ATS performance, superior team ERA, and Houston's historically poor road-favorite ATS record (10-21) provide a lean toward the Tigers ML, but Arrighetti's clear starter edge and Houston's hot streak cap this at a LEAN rather than a PICK.
Key Factors
Detroit team ERA is 3.80 vs Houston's 4.72 — a 0.92 gap favoring Tigers pitching staff overall
Detroit home ATS record is 26-15 (.634), one of the strongest home splits in the data; Houston road ATS is 20-22 (.476)
Houston is 10-21 (.323) ATS as a road favorite — a severe liability when laying price on the road
Montero (3-5, 3.68) vs Arrighetti (7-3, 3.13) is close enough that the team ERA gap and home advantage offset the slight starter edge for Houston; Detroit's lower Opp OPS (0.697 vs 0.744) suggests their pitching staff suppresses opposing offenses more effectively