All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Cincinnati Reds
@
Pittsburgh Pirates
Date
Fri, Jun 26
Time
10:40 PM
Venue
PNC Park
Spread
Pirates ML
Odds
-205
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Pirates ML
-205 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
Pittsburgh has the better pitcher, better offense, better pitching staff, and home-field advantage, making them the clear directional lean — but the -205 price demands 80+ confidence to justify a PICK, and the edge does not clear that bar, so this stays a LEAN.
Key Factors
Skenes ERA (2.86) vs Abbott ERA (3.83) — nearly a 1.0-run gap favoring the home starter, approaching the 1.5 threshold for a significant edge
Pirates team ERA 4.08 vs Reds team ERA 4.51, and WHIP 1.30 vs 1.45 — Pittsburgh's pitching staff is meaningfully better across the board
Pirates offense is significantly stronger: .746 OPS vs .699, .257 BA vs .226, and 409 runs scored vs 331 on the season
Pirates on a W2 streak at home (22-20 home record) vs Reds on an L3 skid; head-to-head this season Pirates lead the series 5-1