All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Philadelphia Phillies
@
New York Mets
Date
Fri, Jun 26
Time
11:10 PM
Venue
Citi Field
Spread
Phillies ML
Odds
-163
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Phillies ML
-163 · 1 Unit
72%
The Edge
Wheeler's elite ERA against an unknown Mets starter is a clear directional edge for Philadelphia, but the Phillies' brutal ATS record and steep -163 price keep this a LEAN rather than a PICK.
Key Factors
Wheeler is 7-1 with a 2.11 ERA — elite by any measure — facing a TBD Mets starter, the largest possible pitching matchup gap in the data
Phillies are 45-36 (.556) vs Mets 34-47 (.420), a 9.5-game talent gap reflected in the standings
Mets are on a 6-game losing streak and 3-7 ATS in their last 10, while Phillies have won 3 straight
Head-to-head this season: Phillies have won 2 of 3 matchups, including a 15-3 blowout and a 6-2 win