All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Seattle Mariners
@
Cleveland Guardians
Date
Fri, Jun 26
Time
11:10 PM
Venue
Progressive Field
Spread
Guardians ML
Odds
-112
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Guardians ML
-112 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Cleveland gets the lean on the strength of the pitching matchup edge, elite home underdog ATS history, and superior overall ATS record, but Ramirez's absence and Seattle's stronger offense cap this at a LEAN rather than a PICK.
Key Factors
Pitcher ERA edge: Cantillo 4.05 vs Castillo 5.22 — a 1.17 ERA delta favoring Cleveland's starter
Cleveland home ATS as underdog: 30-12 (.714) — an exceptional cover rate that signals consistent home competitiveness
Overall ATS edge: Guardians 43-38 (.531) vs Mariners 30-52 (.366) — a 17% gap in ATS win rate
Seattle on L2 streak coming off back-to-back losses at PIT (1-5, 1-11), while Cleveland won their last game 4-3