All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
New York Yankees
@
Boston Red Sox
Date
Sat, Jun 27
Time
5:00 PM
Venue
Fenway Park
Spread
Yankees ML
Odds
-125
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Yankees ML
-125 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
The Yankees' superior team quality and Boston's historically poor home ATS record provide a lean toward New York ML at -125, but the loss of Judge and Stanton combined with Boston's current hot streak keeps this below PICK confidence.
Key Factors
Yankees +1.3 run differential vs Red Sox 0.0 — meaningful team quality gap over a full 81-game sample
Yankees 48-33 (.593 win%) vs Red Sox 34-46 (.425 win%) — a 17-game gap in the standings
Boston only 14-25 (.359) ATS at home this season — one of the worst home ATS marks in the league
Yankees team ERA 3.34 vs Red Sox 3.77, and opponent OPS allowed 0.654 vs 0.700 — Yankees pitching staff is meaningfully better across the board