All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Houston Astros
@
Detroit Tigers
Date
Sat, Jun 27
Time
5:10 PM
Venue
Comerica Park
Spread
Tigers ML
Odds
-136
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Tigers ML
-136 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
Detroit's superior team pitching metrics and home advantage provide a directional lean, but a suspected pitcher assignment error (Framber Valdez listed as a Detroit starter) introduces enough uncertainty to keep this a LEAN rather than a PICK.
Key Factors
Detroit team ERA 3.76 vs Houston team ERA 4.76 — a full run difference, one of the clearest pitching edges available in this data
Detroit team WHIP 1.24 vs Houston 1.39, and opponent OPS allowed 0.694 vs Houston's 0.745 — Tigers pitching staff is suppressing opposing offenses at a meaningfully better rate
Detroit home ATS record as underdog is 28-12 (.700) — elite home performance when not favored, and they are the home favorite here at -136
Detroit home SU record 23-19 vs Houston road record 20-23 — Tigers win more than half their home games while Astros lose more than half on the road