All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Miami Marlins
@
St. Louis Cardinals
Date
Sun, Jun 28
Time
6:15 PM
Venue
Busch Stadium
Spread
Marlins ML
Odds
+109
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Marlins ML
+109 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
Miami's superior pitching matchup, dominant recent ATS form, and positive moneyline value at +109 provide enough of a directional lean to take the Marlins ML, though missing pitcher splits cap this at a LEAN rather than a PICK.
Key Factors
Miami is 8-2 ATS last 10 vs. STL's 3-7 ATS last 10 — a 5-game gap in recent cover rate
Tyler Phillips (1-2, 3.09 ERA) holds a meaningful ERA edge over Kyle Leahy (5-4, 4.24 ERA) — a 1.15-run differential favoring Miami's starter
Miami's team ERA (3.96) and WHIP (1.24) are both superior to St. Louis (4.30 ERA, 1.35 WHIP), and Miami's Opp OPS allowed (0.676) is significantly better than STL's (0.735)
Miami is 26-20 ATS as a road underdog (.565) and wins outright at +109 — the price offers positive expected value given the pitching edge and momentum