All Picks
MLB · MoneylineLost
Kansas City Royals
@
Chicago White Sox
Date
Sun, Jun 28
Time
6:10 PM
Venue
Rate Field
Spread
White Sox ML
Odds
-137
Risk
MOD
PICK
White Sox ML
-137 · 1 Unit
76%
❌ Loss
Kansas City Royals 5, Chicago White Sox 4
-100.00u
The Edge
Chicago's superior home record, better starting pitcher, and dominant season-long pitching metrics give them a clear edge as a moderate favorite at -137 — a price that sits squarely in the best EV zone.
Key Factors
Anthony Kay holds a clear ERA edge over Luinder Avila — 4.24 vs. 5.06, an 0.82 gap favoring the home starter
Chicago is 28-13 at home (.683 SU) vs. Kansas City 15-28 on the road (.349 SU) — a 33-point win-rate gap
White Sox ATS at home: 27-14 (.659) vs. Royals ATS on the road: 17-26 (.395) — a 26-point ATS gap
Chicago outperforms Kansas City in team ERA (4.25 vs. 4.84), team WHIP (1.33 vs. 1.43), and OPS allowed (0.723 vs. 0.780), reflecting a systemic pitching and defense edge