All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
New York Yankees
@
Boston Red Sox
Date
Sun, Jun 28
Time
11:20 PM
Venue
Fenway Park
Spread
Red Sox ML
Odds
-117
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Red Sox ML
-117 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
Gray's elite 2.95 ERA against a Judge-and-Stanton-depleted Yankees lineup is a genuine edge, but Boston's brutal home ATS record and the Yankees' superior overall roster quality cap this at a LEAN rather than a PICK.
Key Factors
Sonny Gray (9-1, 2.95 ERA) vs Carlos Rodon (4-2, 3.70 ERA) — a 0.75 ERA gap favoring Boston's starter, the single biggest factor in any MLB game
Yankees are on an L3 streak, going 2-8 ATS in their last 10, while Red Sox are on a W3 streak and 6-4 ATS in their last 10
Yankees missing Aaron Judge (stress fracture, 10-DAY-IL) and Giancarlo Stanton (calf, 10-DAY-IL) — two of their most dangerous offensive weapons — gutting an offense that relies on power (121 HR on the season)
Boston is the moneyline favorite at -117 and has covered in all three games of this series, outscoring NYY 16-5 across Jun 25-27