All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
New York Mets
@
Toronto Blue Jays
Date
Mon, Jun 29
Time
11:07 PM
Venue
Rogers Centre
Spread
Blue Jays ML
Odds
-126
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Blue Jays ML
-126 · 1 Unit
58%
The Edge
A LEAN on Toronto at home based on the pitching edge and home-field advantage, but the Blue Jays' six-game skid and near-even moneyline keep this well short of a PICK.
Key Factors
Pitching edge: Yesavage (3-3, 3.56 ERA) holds a 1.31 ERA advantage over Manaea (1-2, 4.87 ERA), the clearest directional signal in this matchup
Toronto's home record (22-24) outpaces their road record and their overall .464 win% edges NYM's .417, giving them a modest baseline edge
NYM is on a L1 streak and carries a negative run differential (-0.6 avg margin) vs TOR's -0.4, both poor but Mets slightly worse
NYM road ATS is 17-24 (.415) as favorites and only 16-25 SU on the road — weak road performance all season