All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Detroit Tigers
@
New York Yankees
Date
Mon, Jun 29
Time
11:05 PM
Venue
Yankee Stadium
Spread
Tigers ML
Odds
+114
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Tigers ML
+114 · 1 Unit
58%
The Edge
The Tigers offer a LEAN at +114 on the strength of a clear pitching edge and a Yankees lineup gutted by injury, but Detroit's brutal road record and the Yankees' overall team quality cap this at a lean rather than a strong pick.
Key Factors
Pitcher ERA edge: Casey Mize 2.95 ERA vs Ryan Weathers 3.95 ERA — a 1.00 gap favoring Detroit's starter
Yankees missing Aaron Judge (stress fracture, 10-day IL) and Giancarlo Stanton (calf, 10-day IL) — two of their most dangerous power bats removed from a lineup that relies on the HR-friendly park (1.28 HR factor)
Detroit ATS as road underdog: 28-13 (.683) — the Tigers cover at a strong rate when getting plus money on the road
Yankees on a 4-game losing streak (L4) and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games, suggesting a team in poor form both straight up and against the number