All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Detroit Tigers
@
New York Yankees
Date
Wed, Jul 1
Time
5:35 PM
Venue
Yankee Stadium
Spread
Tigers ML
Odds
+119
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Tigers ML
+119 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Detroit ML is a LEAN — the pitching edge, series momentum, and Yankees' injury-depleted lineup create a real directional signal, but the Tigers' poor road record and the Yankees' home-park advantage prevent this from reaching PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Detroit is 7-3 ATS last 10 games vs. New York's 1-9 ATS last 10 — a massive 60-point gap in recent cover rate
Yankees are on a 6-game losing streak and have lost both prior games this series 7-3 and 9-3, suggesting real momentum and matchup familiarity for Detroit
New York is missing Aaron Judge (10-DAY-IL), Giancarlo Stanton (10-DAY-IL), and Ryan McMahon (10-DAY-IL) — significant lineup degradation against a Tigers staff posting 3.76 ERA and .691 opponent OPS allowed
Troy Melton enters at 4-1 with a 2.39 ERA vs. Will Warren at 7-3 with a 3.75 ERA — a 1.36 ERA delta favoring the Detroit starter, approaching the 1.5 threshold flagged as a significant edge