All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
St. Louis Cardinals
@
Atlanta Braves
Date
Wed, Jul 1
Time
11:15 PM
Venue
Truist Park
Spread
Braves ML
Odds
-137
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Braves ML
-137 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Atlanta's superior pitching infrastructure and home record provide a lean, but the Braves' cold recent form (L3, 2-8 ATS last 10) and the Cardinals' elite road ATS record cap this at a LEAN rather than a PICK.
Key Factors
Atlanta team ERA 3.43 vs St. Louis 3.43 — Braves staff holds opponents to .669 OPS vs Cardinals allowing .730 OPS, a meaningful pitching quality gap
Braves are 24-15 SU at home (.615) vs Cardinals 21-17 on the road (.553) — home field advantage is real
Atlanta +1.0 run differential vs St. Louis +0.0 — Braves are the better overall team by this metric
Lopez (3-1) has a better win-loss record than McGreevy (3-6), though ERAs are close (3.47 vs 3.12)