All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Pittsburgh Pirates
@
Philadelphia Phillies
Date
Wed, Jul 1
Time
10:40 PM
Venue
Citizens Bank Park
Spread
Phillies ML
Odds
-136
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Phillies ML
-136 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
Wheeler's elite 2.03 ERA is the dominant factor here and earns a LEAN toward Philadelphia, but the Phillies' historically poor home ATS record (.386) and Pittsburgh's superior offense cap this at a lean rather than a firm pick.
Key Factors
Wheeler (8-1, 2.03 ERA) vs Skenes (6-7, 3.10 ERA) — a 1.07 ERA gap favoring the home starter, Wheeler's record is elite and among the best in MLB
Phillies are 48-38 (.558 win%) vs Pirates 43-43 (.500) — a meaningful 5.8% overall quality gap
Phillies won the series opener 8-0 on Jun 30 and hold a 4-1 head-to-head advantage this season
Citizens Bank Park run factor 1.07 / HR factor 1.12 with 72°F clear conditions and 8 mph wind blowing out to RF — slight offensive boost that benefits the home team