All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
San Francisco Giants
@
Arizona Diamondbacks
Date
Thu, Jul 2
Time
1:40 AM
Venue
Chase Field
Spread
Diamondbacks ML
Odds
-132
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Diamondbacks ML
-132 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Arizona's total seasonal dominance over San Francisco (8-0 H2H), superior home record, and better team pitching metrics justify a lean on the Diamondbacks ML at a reasonable -132 price, but Gallen's ugly 6.15 ERA caps this at a lean rather than a strong pick.
Key Factors
Arizona is 8-0 against San Francisco this season, including wins of 12-2, 6-3, 5-3, 6-2, 7-5, 3-2, 5-4, and 8-2 — complete dominance in the matchup
Arizona home record is 26-17 SU and 24-19 ATS (.558) vs SF road record of 17-28 SU and 20-25 ATS (.444)
Arizona on a W2 streak vs SF on an L2 streak, with momentum clearly on the home side
Arizona team WHIP (1.29) and ERA (4.30) are both better than SF's WHIP (1.37) and ERA (4.37), giving a slight pitching edge to the home side