All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Boston Red Sox
@
Pittsburgh Pirates
Date
Sun, Aug 16
Time
5:35 PM
Venue
PNC Park
Spread
Red Sox ML
Odds
-114
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Red Sox ML
-114 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
Boston's clear pitching advantages and superior road record give a directional lean, but the thin moneyline price, Boston's injury-depleted lineup, and Pittsburgh's stronger offensive numbers keep this a LEAN rather than a PICK.
Key Factors
Pitching edge: Sandoval's 3.30 ERA beats Bachar's 3.97, and Boston's team ERA of 3.48 is nearly a full run better than Pittsburgh's 4.32
Boston suppresses opposing offenses more effectively — opponent OPS allowed 0.679 vs Pittsburgh's 0.716
Boston's road record is a strong 37-26 SU (.587), well above Pittsburgh's home record of 31-31 (.500)
Boston won yesterday's game 4-0 in this same matchup, riding a W1 streak vs Pittsburgh's L1