All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
New York Yankees
@
Toronto Blue Jays
Date
Sun, Aug 16
Time
5:37 PM
Venue
Rogers Centre
Spread
Blue Jays ML
Odds
-119
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Blue Jays ML
-119 · 1 Unit
68%
The Edge
Cease's elite ERA and Toronto's red-hot ATS form provide a directional lean toward the Blue Jays at home, but the Yankees' superior run differential, underdog ATS record, and missing pitcher split data keep this short of a full PICK.
Key Factors
Dylan Cease ERA of 2.40 vs Ryan Weathers ERA of 3.69 — a 1.29 ERA gap, the single most predictive MLB signal per methodology
Toronto 8-2 ATS last 10 games, the hottest recent cover run in this matchup
Toronto has won 4 of the last 2 head-to-head games in this series (4-1, 3-1 in Aug 14-15), showing direct dominance over this Yankees lineup
Yankees on an L3 streak and 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games, all against Toronto or Seattle, scoring 1 run or fewer in two of three