All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
Milwaukee Brewers
@
Los Angeles Dodgers
Date
Sun, Aug 16
Time
8:10 PM
Venue
Dodger Stadium
Spread
Brewers ML
Odds
+163
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Brewers ML
+163 · 1 Unit
60%
The Edge
The Brewers ML at +163 is a LEAN based on strong underdog ATS performance and the Dodgers' historically poor home ATS record, but the Dodgers' superior home SU record and bullpen health concerns cap this below PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Dodgers are 23-39 (.371) ATS at home this season — one of the worst home ATS marks in MLB
Brewers hold a +10% ATS win rate edge overall (64-60 .516 vs LAD 52-72 .419)
Logan Henderson's ERA (2.88) is virtually identical to Skubal's (2.93), yet Milwaukee is priced as a +163 underdog — the market is overweighting home-field and name recognition
Brewers are 15-8 (.652) ATS as underdogs this season, a strong sample showing they outperform their price when getting plus money