All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
St. Louis Cardinals
@
Cincinnati Reds
Date
Mon, Aug 17
Time
10:40 PM
Venue
Great American Ball Park
Spread
Cardinals ML
Odds
-119
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Cardinals ML
-119 · 1 Unit
72%
The Edge
The pitching matchup and ATS momentum both point to St. Louis, but the thin -119 price and hitter-friendly environment keep this a LEAN rather than a full PICK.
Key Factors
Pitcher ERA edge: Pallante 3.46 vs Lowder 5.15 — a 1.69 gap that clears the 1.5+ significant-edge threshold
Cardinals ATS last 10: 7-3 vs Reds ATS last 10: 3-7 — momentum strongly favors St. Louis
Cardinals road ATS record: 33-25 (.569) vs Reds home ATS record: 29-34 (.460) — elite road team facing a below-average home team
Cardinals team ERA 4.04 vs Reds team ERA 4.51 — St. Louis is the superior pitching staff overall, compounding the starter edge