All Picks
MLB · Moneyline
San Diego Padres
@
New York Mets
Date
Mon, Aug 17
Time
11:10 PM
Venue
Citi Field
Spread
Mets ML
Odds
-114
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Mets ML
-114 · 1 Unit
62%
The Edge
McLean's ERA edge and favorable home park give the Mets a narrow lean, but the Padres' elite road ATS record and the Mets' depleted bullpen keep this well short of a PICK.
Key Factors
McLean's 3.42 ERA vs Buehler's 4.88 ERA — a 1.46-run gap that meets the threshold for a significant pitching edge
Mets are the home team at Citi Field, a pitcher-friendly park (Run Factor 0.97, HR Factor 0.93) that should amplify McLean's advantage
Mets on a W3 streak with momentum, going 3-0 against Washington including a 4-1 win on Aug 14
Mets ML is only -114 — a moderate favorite price in the sweet spot for value, requiring only a modest edge to justify