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MLB · Moneyline
Detroit Tigers
@
Pittsburgh Pirates
Date
Tue, Aug 18
Time
10:40 PM
Venue
PNC Park
Spread
Tigers ML
Odds
+131
Risk
MOD
LEANSoft lean — not a strong recommendation
Tigers ML
+131 · 1 Unit
60%
The Edge
Detroit's pitching edge — both from Montero and the overall staff — combined with strong underdog ATS history justifies a lean on the Tigers ML at plus money, but Pittsburgh's offensive advantage and home record keep this from reaching PICK threshold.
Key Factors
Starter ERA edge: Montero 3.22 vs Ashcraft 3.88 — a 0.66 gap favoring Detroit's arm
Team ERA gap: Detroit 3.56 vs Pittsburgh 4.34 — Tigers pitching staff is meaningfully better overall
Detroit's opponent OPS allowed (0.677) is well below Pittsburgh's (0.717), confirming Tigers pitching suppresses offenses more effectively
Detroit ATS as underdog: 34-17 (.667) on the season — strong cover rate when getting plus money, and they are +131 here